California exports drop for ninth straight month

Published Friday, Sep. 11, 2009

Signs of global economic recovery were nowhere to be found in California's latest trade figures, although national figures did point to an uptick in spending.

California exports were down sharply for the ninth straight month in July from the same period a year ago, according to the University of California Center Sacramento.

Exports were valued at $9.77 billion, down 23.5 percent from $12.77 billion in July 2008.

"Adjusting for inflation, this was the lowest export total for the month of July California has recorded since 2003," said Jock O'Connell, the UC center's international trade and economics adviser.

The center based its analysis on data released Thursday by the U.S. Department of Commerce. As reported by the Associated Press, the department said international trade activity was on the rise, boosting foreign demand for U.S. goods for a third straight month. However, the United States also saw its appetite for foreign products increase.

U.S. exports rose 2.2 percent to $127.6 billion from June to July, and imports rose 4.7 percent to $159.6 billion, the largest monthly advance since record-keeping began in 1992.

The Commerce Department said those corresponding increases pushed the U.S. trade deficit to $32 billion in July, its highest level in six months.

Some economists saw increased imports as a sign that retailers and manufacturers are rebuilding their inventories, which could lead to greater production.

"Eventually the factories have to come back online to restock the shelves," said Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, which raised its forecast for third-quarter U.S. economic growth from 2 percent to 3 percent. In its analysis of California trade, the UC center said manufactured exports from the state fell by 25.2 percent in July, compared with a year ago, while agricultural goods and other non-manufactured exports dipped by 29 percent. Re-exports of goods previously imported into the state were off by 13.2 percent.

The UC center said California's year-to-date exports of $66.12 billion are down 23.1 percent from $85.99 billion in the 2008 January-to-July period.

The center said the value of foreign goods entering the United States through California in July was $29.1 billion, a 29 percent decrease from $41 billion last year.

State-specific imports are not broken down, because some goods entering California are bound for other states. Consequently, exports of California-produced goods are considered the key indicator of Golden State trade.

O'Connell pointed to some slivers of hope, noting that some California agricultural imports were up and that export totals have been edging up since spring.

Still, he said California's high unemployment and wobbly economy are "not likely to produce any robust recovery."

Other financial experts agreed.

"It's going to be very tough, because unemployment in this state is probably close to 25 percent if you consider the level of underemployment," said Keith Springer, president of Capital Financial Advisory Services in Sacramento.

Springer cited major losses, such as the scheduled March 2010 closure of the NUMMI vehicle-assembly plant in Fremont, the 25-year-old General Motors-Toyota joint venture that once employed 20,000.

"That's big and there's really no place to make up that many job losses in this economy," Springer said.

 

Keith Springer is President of Capital Financial Advisory Services, a registered investment advisor, providing Wealth Management and Mortgage Consulting Services.  For more information on how to build and maintain a solid retirement plan, please contact Keith Springer at 916-925-8900 or Keith@KeithSpringer.com